The Potential Effect of Donald Trump’s New Pro-crypto Stance on the 2024 US Elections
With 40% of investors planning to add crypto to their portfolio, Donald Trump vows crypto protection, saying he will ensure the future of Bitcoin and crypto will be made in the USA.
- Pro-crypto states hold an estimated third of all electoral votes.
- Three pro-crypto Super PACs alone raised over $110 million.
- Search trends for “bitcoin” range from above average to popular.
Donald Trump recently gave the ultimate pro-crypto speech, outlining how he plans to support crypto should he be elected US President. After a major shift in his stance, the US presidential candidate made six crypto-related promises, including freeing Silk Road’s Ross Ulbricht, stopping Joe Biden’s CBDC, and supporting self-custody rights for the nation’s 50 million crypto holders, among others.
The US Presidential Candidate stands to win not just individual votes, but also electoral votes, support from Super PACs, and direct crypto donations. The timing of Trump’s support comes amid the SEC passing the 19b-4 form (S-1 form still pending) for spot Ether ETF applicants.
The following aspects explore the potential effects of Trump’s decision to go pro-crypto.
Individual Voters
After a major shift in his stance, the US presidential candidate made six crypto-related promises. All which gained strong support online from crypto advocates, users, and enthusiasts.
- Ensure the future of crypto and Bitcoin will be made in the USA.
- Support the right to self-custody to the nation’s 50 million crypto holders.
- Keep Elizabeth Warren away from Bitcoin.
- Block the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
- Stop Joe Biden from crushing crypto.
- Free Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the darknet market Silk Road.
A Grayscale survey reveals the role of crypto in the upcoming elections. It highlights that 46% of voters want to invest in crypto but are waiting for additional policies. The study also found that half of young voters who own crypto own more crypto than equities.
The survey also found that 40% of investors expect their future portfolio to include crypto, and 73% say Presidential candidates should have an informed perspective on innovative technology, like AI or crypto.
Trump also said he would support the right to self-custody for the nation’s 50 million crypto holders.
Electoral Votes
From a previous CNBC 2022 report, here are some of the pro-crypto states and their respective electoral votes:
If we count the states that accept crypto for state tax payments, have supportive legislation, or have publicly expressed support, we can add the following:
Hypothetically, if these states support Trump due to his pro-crypto stance, this would amount to 167 or almost a third of the 538 total electoral votes.
An April poll of swing states by Bloomberg and Morning Consult found Trump winning in every swing state except Michigan. This would add Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin, worth an additional 45 electoral votes, to the list above, bringing the total to 212 or almost 40% of the total electoral votes.
Super PACs
Fairshake, Protect Progress, and Defend American Jobs are Super Political Action Committees (Super PACs) committed to supporting pro-crypto candidates in the upcoming election.
- Fairshake — $92 million
- Protect Progress — $10.3 million
- Defend American Jobs — $9.7 million
These Super PACs are backed by major crypto players like Andreessen Horowitz, Ripple Labs, and Coinbase. Should Trump get their full support, this would be on top of the Make America Great Again PAC, which already raised $14m, and other PACs already supporting him.
Holdings/NFTs
The US Presidential candidate recently announced he would accept crypto donations, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, USD Coin, XRP, Doge, and Shiba Inu. Arkham Intelligence reveals his wallet holdings totaling $10.1 million, with $TRUMP being his top holding at $7.3 million.
The former US President also reportedly made close to $5 million in licensing fees for the sale of his NFT collection, per Fortune.
Crypto Social Metrics
The term ‘Bitcoin’ maintains a healthy average on Google Trends, consistently ranging from above average to popular in search results.
Data from The Block shows the increase in tweet volume around Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin reached a high of over 750,000 mentions from March 10 to 17, with increased activity year-to-date.
With the popularity of other keywords like “bitcoin,” “crypto,” or other related searches, Trump’s decision to endorse crypto could potentially give him free press and more visibility.
Disclaimer: The above mentioned metrics present hypothetical benefits, and the official effect of Trump’s pro-crypto stance remains to be seen.
